After four years of excess trucking capacity and declining freight rates, the market is beginning to shift.
The prolonged freight downturn caused carriers across North America to reduce operations or exit the market entirely. As a result, available trucking capacity has decreased. Based on FMCSA registration data, it is estimated that between 5,000 and 8,000 carriers exited the market in 2025, with bankruptcies and downsizing continuing into 2026. While freight demand has remained relatively stable, the shrinking supply of trucks and rising transportation costs are creating conditions for a tighter freight market.
Market indicators are already reflecting this shift. Spot rates increased more than 16% year-over-year in early 2026, tender rejection rates climbed above 13%, and transportation costs are projected to be approximately 18–20% higher year-over-year. Industry analysts note that ongoing carrier exits and higher operating costs are continuing to put upward pressure on rates, even without significant growth in freight demand. The result is fewer trucks competing for the same freight and a market that is steadily becoming more competitive for shippers.
What This Means for Shippers
During the downturn, securing truck capacity was rarely a challenge. An oversupply of trucks gave shippers greater flexibility and helped keep transportation costs low. That environment is changing.
As the market rebalances, capacity is becoming more competitive, and freight rates are increasing. Finding reliable transportation may become more difficult, particularly during seasonal surges, weather events, labor disruptions, or other market fluctuations.
For shippers, this is more than a market shift—it is an operational risk. As capacity tightens, securing trucks becomes less predictable, transportation costs can increase quickly and unexpectedly, and routing guides may break down more frequently, pushing more freight into the spot market. Carriers that weathered the downturn are also becoming more selective about the freight they move, prioritizing customers and partnerships that align with their networks and operational goals.
Industry experts suggest that this cycle may differ from previous market shifts because the reduction in capacity appears to be more structural than temporary. If that proves true, tighter market conditions could persist longer than many shippers have experienced in recent years.
For shippers, this means strong service provider relationships, strategic transportation planning, and proactive communication are becoming increasingly important.
How Mohawk Global Can Help
Our transportation team continuously monitors market conditions and maintains relationships with a broad network of trusted carriers across North America. As capacity tightens, those relationships help us identify transportation solutions, secure capacity, and keep freight moving efficiently.
Success in a tighter market requires visibility, strong carrier partnerships, and a transportation provider that can adapt to changing conditions on your behalf. That’s where Mohawk Global delivers value.
With Mohawk Global, you gain access to:
- A trusted carrier network built on long-standing relationships
- Proactive planning and forecasting to help anticipate capacity constraints
- Real-time market insights that support informed transportation decisions
- Flexible transportation solutions across truckload, LTL, and intermodal services
When capacity tightens, working with a transportation partner that understands the market and has strong carrier relationships can help keep your freight moving.
Bottom Line
The freight market is tightening. Capacity is shrinking, transportation costs are rising, and competition for available trucks is increasing.
Shippers that wait to react may feel the impact first. Shippers that plan will be better positioned to manage costs, maintain service levels, and keep freight moving.
Whether you’re preparing for potential market shifts or already experiencing capacity challenges, we are here to help.
Contact our Mohawk Global North American Transportation Team to secure reliable capacity and strengthen your transportation strategy.